Ryanair Cuts Winter Flights Over $140 Fuel

Ryanair says jet fuel is trading at almost $140 per barrel and is cutting its winter flight schedule in response. The airline will reduce its passenger target for the financial year ending March 2027 by two million travelers to limit exposure to volatile fuel costs.

Recent geopolitical crises, including the war in Iran and the blockading of the Straits of Hormuz, are impacting fuel prices. Ryanair's move aims to protect profitability by focusing on high-yield routes and reducing services that would operate at a loss. The carrier states this will lower its winter losses by up to $116 million (€100 million).

Strategy Focuses on Hedged Fuel Supplies

Ryanair's decision cuts its passenger target from 216 million to 214 million for FY27. This reduction is designed to decrease the airline's reliance on unhedged jet fuel during the less profitable winter season. Unhedged oil refers to fuel purchased on the spot market without fixed-price contracts, which is subject to high price volatility.

The cuts will allow Ryanair to operate primarily using its hedged fuel supplies. The airline currently has 80% of its jet fuel hedged at $67 per barrel, with a further 15% hedged at $85 per barrel. In a statement reported by The Guardian, Ryanair said, "If high oil prices continue through to summer 2027, Ryanair believes short-haul air fares in Europe will increase materially to reflect higher oil prices, as some less well-hedged competitors will struggle to maintain capacity or even survive this coming winter season."

Airline Still Projects a Profitable Year

Despite the cuts, Ryanair expects to record a profitable year. However, analysis reported by Quartz suggests its profit may fall below the record €2.17 billion ($2.52 billion) achieved previously. The final impact of the capacity reductions and hedging strategy on FY27 results remains speculative.

The airline credits its business model, low fares, and high capacity for its resilience. Ryanair had been on track for a five percent rise in passenger numbers from April to October this year, from 138 million to 145 million. The carrier also reports that its fares have been drifting "modestly down" this summer compared to last summer.

Route Suspensions Accompany Capacity Cuts

As part of its broader capacity reduction, Ryanair has suspended 17 routes this summer. A key example is its service to Queen Alia International Airport (AMM) in Amman, Jordan, which it had served for eight years. These flights were not scheduled to resume until the end of October.

This suspension affected all 17 routes Ryanair previously operated to Amman from various European cities. When service to Amman resumes, it will only be from four airports: Budapest (BUD), Bucharest (OTP), Madrid (MAD), and Vienna (VIE). The airline had planned Amman as its sole Middle Eastern destination due to the ongoing regional conflict.